(USA) Staff, Product Manager - Predictive Incrementality

The (USA) Staff, Product Manager leads strategy and execution for complex products, driving end-to-end outcomes from discovery through value realization. This role requires deep customer and technical insight, strong stakeholder leadership, and ownership of multi-quarter product vision and roadmaps. The position emphasizes data-driven decision making, cross-functional collaboration, and innovation in emerging technologies. The Staff Product Manager influences product direction, mentors peers, and ensures alignment with broader business objectives while managing risk and delivering measurable impact across the product lifecycle.

About the team:

The Measurement team at Walmart Connect develops advanced incrementality, attribution, and planning products that drive advertiser growth across multiple channels including Search, Display, In-store, Social, and CTV. Leveraging the largest retail transactions dataset in the world, the team delivers innovative measurement solutions by combining deep product expertise with data-driven insights. This group leads product discovery, strategy, and execution while aligning with business goals. Working closely with cross-functional partners, the team shapes impactful roadmaps and advances Walmart's leadership in retail media technology through rigorous stakeholder management and emerging technology integration.

What you'll do:

• Own predictive incrementality modeling that quantifies each touchpoint's contribution to conversions, enabling full-funnel budget allocation
• Develop causal calibration approaches that combine experiment ground truth with observational attribution signals to produce trustworthy and actionable insights
• Define evaluation and governance practices that validate models against experiment data to provide reliable insights within SLA guardrails (that you define)
• Partner with cross functional product and engineering teams to operationalize incrementality across planning, reporting, and optimization

What you'll bring:

• Causal inference and measurement background, including experience dealing with the tradeoffs and synergies between observational modeling and experiment-based ground truth
• Proven ability to refine noisy measurement into decision-ready outputs (e.g., touchpoint credits/shares) that drive measurable business impact
• Track record of validating and governing predictive models against experiment-based targets, including evaluation rigor and iteration based on results
• Ability to communicate model assumptions, uncertainty, and decision implications clearly to both technical and non-technical partners

At Walmart, we offer competitive pay as well as performance-based bonus awards and other great benefits for a happier mind, body, and wallet. Health benefits include medical, vision and dental coverage. Financial benefits include 401(k), stock purchase and company-paid life insurance. Paid time off benefits include PTO (including sick leave), parental leave, family care leave, bereavement, jury duty, and voting. Other benefits include short-term and long-term disability, company discounts, Military Leave Pay, adoption and surrogacy expense reimbursement, and more. You will also receive PTO and/or PPTO that can be used for vacation, sick leave, holidays, or other purposes. The amount you receive depends on your job classification and length of employment. It will meet or exceed the requirements of paid sick leave laws, where applicable. For information about PTO, see https://one.walmart.com/notices. Live Better U is a Walmart-paid education benefit program for full-time and part-time associates in Walmart and Sam''s Club facilities. Programs range from high school completion to bachelor''s degrees, including English Language Learning and short-form certificates. Tuition, books, and fees are completely paid for by Walmart.

Eligibility requirements apply to some benefits and may depend on your job classification and length of employment. Benefits are subject to change and may be subject to a specific plan or program terms.

For information about benefits and eligibility, see One.Walmart.

San Bruno, California US-08848: The annual salary range for this position is $143,000.00 - $286,000.00

Bellevue, Washington US-11663: The annual salary range for this position is $132,000.00 - $264,000.00 Additional compensation includes annual or quarterly performance bonuses. Additional compensation for certain positions may also include :

• Stock