Operations Research Analyst

Operations Research Analyst – Strategic Analysis and Analytic Innovation Division (SAID)

JOA#: GS 2026-1515-120 (SAID)

Department: Department of War (DOW)

Agency: Office of the Secretary of War (OSW)

Hiring Organization: Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE)

Open Period: 9/30/2026 – 10/27/2026

Pay Scale & Grade: GS-12/13/14/15

Salary Range: $102,415 - $197,200

Series & Appointment Type: 1515 Operations Research, Permanent - Schedule B Excepted Service

Location: Pentagon, Arlington, VA

Work Schedule: Full Time

Clearance Requirements: Must be able to obtain and maintain a Top Secret/SCI

Citizenship Requirement: Open to all US Citizens

Relocation expenses reimbursed: No

Summary:

CAPE is hiring! We provide objective, analysis-based advice directly to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of War on everything the Department of War does, and our work has a direct effect on the US budget and national security.

Within CAPE, an interdisciplinary and non-advocate organization, the Analysis and Innovation (A&I) Deputate is responsible for a standing strategic assessment of the Defense Program as a whole, focused on its long-term feasibility and its coherence with the defense strategy. A&I also maintains the analytic methods, standards, data infrastructure, and modeling and simulation tools on which CAPE’s analysis rests. It performs CAPE’s role as Executive Secretary of the Department’s Analysis Working Group (AWG), the body chartered to raise analytic standards across the Department.

This announcement is for positions in the Strategic Analysis and Analytic Innovation Division (SAID). SAID maintains CAPE’s analytic methods and the standards to which CAPE analyses are held, including sound study design, appropriate evidence, documented provenance, and explicit treatment of uncertainty. It builds the analytic tools that embody those methods, which CAPE’s data-infrastructure division, the Defense Analyst Support Hub (DASH), integrates and operates on the War Data Platform. It performs the assurance review that confirms analyses, especially AI-assisted ones, are defensible before they are used. Its methods span design of experiments, exploratory modeling and scenario discovery, optimization and decision analysis, statistical inference and forecasting, structured elicitation, wargaming and campaign-analysis standards, and the verification of AI-assisted analysis. SAID is also the principal contributor to the methods-and-standards content of CAPE’s role as Executive Secretary of the Department’s Analysis Working Group. Through that role, the methods and standards SAID develops reach the Department as a whole. SAID also builds the emulation layer of CAPE's mission analysis environment -- the surrogate models that stand in for expensive simulations, fitted and validated to SAID's standard, and the pre-built analytics on them -- which DASH operates.

This announcement covers three entry points in SAID:

Senior Methodologist (GS-14/15): A generalist on the division’s common methods skill set, including design of experiments and statistics. Each senior methodologist also owns one named specialization: wargaming and campaign analysis; exploratory modeling and scenario discovery; emulation and surrogate modeling; optimization and operations research; or inference, forecasting, and structured elicitation.

AI Specialist (GS-14/15): The one senior seat without a methods specialization, dedicated to finding effective uses of AI in analysis and, above all, verifying what it produces. Any product the specialist builds for senior leaders is reviewed by another qualified reviewer, never by its developer alone.

Methodologist (GS-12/13): Develops on the common skill set under a senior mentor.

Duties and Responsibilities:

Depending on the grade level and specific billet, selectees will be responsible for:

Setting the Methods and Rigor Standard: Developing, defining, and validating the study-design, statistical, and assurance rules that determine what makes an analysis defensible: sound design, evidence, provenance, and stated uncertainty.

Building Analytic Tools: Creating, testing, and documenting the tools and models that embody approved methods, for DASH to integrate and operate on the War Data Platform and for analysts across CAPE to run.

Model and Algorithm Catalogue: Developing and maintaining a catalogue of modern mathematical models and algorithms that improve campaign and warfighting analysis, with the conditions under which each is valid.

Assurance Review: Conducting independent reviews to determine and document whether CAPE analyses meet applicable methods and assurance standards before senior leaders use them, including any residual limitations or unresolved uncertainties. For AI-assisted work, applying verification protocols under which no tool or product that goes to senior leaders is validated by its own developer.

Conducting Code-Based Analytics: Conducting analysis and tool development in programming or statistical software suites such as R, Python, MATLAB, or GAMS.

Mentorship (GS-14/15): Mentoring junior methodologists in method, documentation, and assurance practice.

Specialized duties (each senior methodologist owns one):

• Wargaming and Campaign Analysis: Setting the standards for the wargames and campaign analyses CAPE uses and judging whether external products meet them. Building and running simple, fast models of how U.S. and adversary forces interact, which CPAD and other divisions use to frame and interpret resource alternatives. Designing methods that let an analysis account for an adversary who adapts to the option under study.
• Exploratory Modeling and Scenario Discovery: Designing ensemble experiments, sampling strategies, experiment frameworks, and discovery analytics to systematically and defensibly map decision trade spaces. Leads the build of the emulation layer of CAPE's mission analysis environment: the design of experiments, the validation standard against held-out runs, out-of-domain detection, and adaptive batch selection.
• Emulation and Surrogate Modeling: Fitting, documenting, and validating the surrogate models (emulators) that stand in for expensive simulations, to the experiment design the exploratory modeling seat sets -- each with a version of record and a stated validation domain -- and building the pre-built analytics on them: sensitivity, marginal gain, tipping-point and feasibility maps, and trade spaces.
• Optimization and Operations Research: Creating formal decision framing, value models, utility functions, and optimization tools for use by CAPE analytic teams evaluating complex defense portfolios.
• Inference, Forecasting, and Structured Elicitation:Designing empirical research designs, forecasting methods, and structured elicitation methods to rigorously validate claims drawn from observed or sparse data.
• AI Methods and Verification:Identifying effective uses of AI and emerging technologies in CAPE’s methods and tools, and developing, testing, and institutionalizing the verification and validation methods that confirm what AI produces. The work follows A&I’s operating rule: AI and automation may support high-volume analytical tasks. Analysts remain responsible for validating inputs, making substantive judgments, and approving final products.

Qualifications:

Basic Requirements:

A degree in operations research from an accredited college/university; or at least 24 semester hours in a combination of operations research, mathematics, probability, statistics, mathematical logic, science, or subject-matter courses requiring substantial competence in college-level mathematics or statistics. At least 3 of the 24 semester hours must have been in calculus.

Required[PC1] Skills:

Your qualifications will be evaluated on your knowledge, skills, abilities, and competencies in the following areas:

Quantitative Analytics: Mathematical and statistical reasoning appropriate to the grade sought, including experience applying and documenting quantitative methods and implementing analysis or tools in code. Applicants should demonstrate depth in at least one of the specialized domains below; breadth across all domains is not required.

Methodological Tradecraft (Specialized Domain Depth): Demonstrated experience in at least one of the following domains:

• Wargaming and Campaign Analysis Standard-Setting: Design of threat-representative, adaptive adversary simulations and coarse resourcing interaction models.
• Exploratory Modeling: Design of experiments (DoE) over high-dimensional computational models, scenario discovery, and parameter uncertainty management.
• Emulation and Surrogate Modeling: Fitting and validating surrogate models of computational simulations (Gaussian-process, tree-ensemble, or neural surrogates), validation against held-out runs, out-of-domain detection, and adaptive sampling.
• Mathematical Optimization: Formulation of multi-objective linear/nonlinear programming, formal decision-framing, and multi-attribute utility models.
• Statistical Inference: Rigorous data-driven forecasting, Bayesian inference, and formal structured elicitation techniques.
• AI Verification and Validation: Deep understanding of AI/ML architectures, verification of generative outputs, bias detection, and adversarial testing.

Collaboration: Ability to work with and collaborate with individuals across a broad spectrum of internal and external organizations, including academia, think tanks, defense laboratories, and international partners, to import and validate new methods.

Communication: Ability to translate complex mathematical concepts, scientific methodologies, and analytic limitations into concise, plain language through varied types of written communication to include emails, memos, PowerPoint briefs, white papers, and full reports. Oral communications may include formal presentations or briefings in front of large groups of senior officials.

Specialized Experience: To qualify at a grade, you must have at least one year of specialized experience (12 months at 40 hours per week) equivalent to at least the next lower grade level, performing the duties and demonstrating the competencies listed for that grade:

• GS-12 Qualifications (Methodologist): Under the guidance of senior analysts, applying analytic, mathematical, or statistical methods to plan, coordinate, and execute segments of studies; and communicating effectively with colleagues; OR a Ph.D. or equivalent doctoral degree.
• GS-13 Qualifications (Methodologist): Experience applying statistical and operations research methods to segments of studies under general direction; implementing and testing analytic models in code; documenting methods, assumptions, and uncertainty; and communicating results to internal and external colleagues.
• GS-14 Qualifications (Senior Methodologist or AI Specialist): Experience equivalent to GS-13 independently developing, testing, or validating analytic methods or tools; documenting assumptions, provenance, limitations, and uncertainty; and demonstrating advanced expertise in at least one announced specialization. AI Specialist applicants must demonstrate experience evaluating AI or machine-learning outputs for validity, bias, robustness, or adversarial failure.
• GS-15 Qualifications (Senior Methodologist or AI Specialist): Experience equivalent to GS-14 leading methodological development or independent analytic assurance; establishing standards used by multiple study teams or organizations; providing authoritative consultation on at least one announced specialization; and communicating methodological findings and limitations to senior decision-makers.

Volunteer Work Experiences: You can also receive credit for all qualifying experience, including volunteer experience. Volunteer work refers to paid and unpaid experience, including volunteer work done through National Service Programs and other organizations (e.g., professional; philanthropic; religious; spiritual; community; student and social).

How to Apply:

Required Documents:

1. Resume:

a. IN DESCRIBING YOUR EXPERIENCE, BE CLEAR, SPECIFIC AND DETAILED. WE MAY NOT MAKE ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING YOUR EXPERIENCE.

b. Include your name, address, and contact information, and for each position the hours worked per week and the dates of employment or volunteer service (month/year to month/year, or month/year to present). One year of specialized experience equals 2,087 hours, or 52 weeks at 40 hours per week; part-time hours are prorated. Experience that does not state exact hours per week, or lists them as "varies", will not be credited. For additional information see:How do I write a resume for a federal job

c. Do not include any photos and Personally Identifiable Information (i.e., Social Security Number, Birthdate) on your resume.

d. Resume must be limited to 2 pages and a minimum size 10 font. Please save your resume as a PDF file to preserve the 2-page length.

2. Transcripts: To count toward the qualification requirements, education must come from an institution accredited by an accrediting body recognized by the U.S. Department of Education. A copy of a diploma alone is not sufficient.

a. Foreign Education: Education completed at a foreign college or university may be used to meet the requirements if you provide proof that the credentials have been evaluated as at least equivalent to those earned in an accredited U.S. program.

3. Writing Sample:Demonstrate your analytic ability and writing skills in one page, addressing the following: Choose one prompt: (1) Identify an analytic method or standard that defense resourcing analysis applies poorly, explain the resulting decision risk, and propose a testable improvement; or (2) describe how you would verify an AI-generated analytic finding before it reaches a senior decision-maker, including provenance, error testing, uncertainty, adversarial testing, and human approval.

4. Veterans Preference:veteran eligibility documentation (DD-214 Member #4 Copy, VA Letter, Standard Form (SF) 15 as applicable). Please note: If you are a veteran who has not yet been discharged, you may provide a statement of intent to discharge from your agency to receive Veterans Preference under the VOW (Veterans Opportunity to Work) to Hire Heroes Act of 2011.

5. SF-50: Your latest SF-50 (if applicable) showing your tenure, grade and step, and type of position occupied. Remove all Personally Identifiable Information (Social Security Number and Birthdate).

a. If you receive an updated SF-50 after initially applying, please provide the updated document to CAPE to be added to your application.

b. If you’ve had a break in service – please provide your original appointment SF50 in addition to your resignation SF50.

c.If you do not have your latest documents, you can submit a request to the National Personnel Records Center to obtain them – see guidance here: https://www.archives.gov/personnel-records-center/civilian-non-archival

6. Military Spouse Preference Eligibility documentation (if applicable). For Priority Placement Program, you must include a copy of the Military Spouse PPP Self-Certification Checklist along with the documents identified on the checklist to verify your eligibility for MSP, such as PCS orders/verification of duty location assignment and a copy of marriage certificate or license. For eligibility under Executive Order 13473, acceptable documentation includes: verification of marriage to the servicemember, verification of member’s 100 percent disability or verification of member’s death while on active duty.

7. Free Response Essay Questions: Optional section to demonstrate your commitment to improving the efficiency of the Federal government, passion about the ideals of our American republic, and commitment to upholding the rule of law and the United States Constitution. You will not be scored against your responses for this section.

Please visit the CAPE Careers website for more information on CAPE, our benefits and more.

How You Will Be Evaluated:

Subject matter experts will evaluate your qualifications before any referral. If you meet the minimum qualifications for this position, your application will be assessed in a multi-hurdle process that ends in a ranking and referral.

Resume Review (First Hurdle): Subject matter experts will review your resume to determine qualifications based on the required competencies identified above.

Qualifying Structured Interviews (Second Hurdle): If the subject matter experts determine that your resume reflects the required competencies, you will have a panel interview (virtual or by phone) to assess your experience against those competencies. The interview may include in-depth questions or an exercise or case study to measure your depth of knowledge.

Ranking and Preference: Qualified candidates receive a score between 70 and 100, before any points for veterans’ preference. Your answers are verified against the information in your application and by reference checks. Preference is applied to applicants who move forward after the qualifying interviews.

Selection Process: Hiring managers receive a certificate listing the qualified candidates eligible for selection. If you are not selected for this position, you may be considered for similar positions for up to six months from the certificate date, and the certificate may be shared with other CAPE hiring managers. If you are selected for an interview, you may be asked to give a presentation, analyze a case study, or take part in several rounds of interviews.

Agency contact information:

Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE)

Email:

osd.pentagon.cape.mbx.esd-support@mail.mil?subject=CAPE%20ORSA%20Application

Address: 1800 Defense Pentagon, Room 3E231, Washington, DC 20301-1800

Additional Information:

Priority consideration programs will continue under their current operating procedures:

Military Spouse Preference (MSP) Eligible:Military Spouse Preference applicants, must be selected and placed at the highest grade level for which they have applied and been determined best qualified up to and including the full performance level. You must include a completed copy of the Military Spouse PPP Self-Certification Checklist dated within 30 days along with the documents identified on the checklist to verify your eligibility for Military Spouse Preference. Click here to obtain a copy of the Military Spouse PPP Self-Certification Checklist.

NOTE: Military spouses are eligible for one permanent noncompetitive appointment using their preference eligibility for the duration of the active-duty sponsor's assignment to a permanent duty station, as long as the military spouse has not declined or accepted a permanent Federal or non-appropriated fund position in the commuting area of the sponsor's current duty location. If you certify that you have not used your preference at your sponsor's current duty location and it is discovered to be untrue, you may be subject to loss of MSP and possible disciplinary action.

Military Spouses, under Executive Order (E.O.) 13473

You are eligible for this hiring category if you are a spouse of a member of the Armed Forces serving on active duty for more than 180 days other than for training; OR are a spouse of a 100 percent disabled service member injured while on active duty; OR are the un-remarried widow or widower of a service member who was killed while performing active duty.

Supporting documentation: You are required to submit acceptable documentation of your eligibility forE.O. 13473 which may include:

• Verification of the marriage to the service member (i.e., a marriage license or other legal documentation verifying marriage);

• Verification of the member's 100 percent disability; and/or

• Verification of the member's death while on active duty.

Additionally, you may need to submit a Standard Form-15 (SF-15), an Application for 10-Point Veterans' Preference, and applicable supporting documents as noted on the form.

To obtain a copy of SF-15, go tohttps://www.opm.gov/forms/pdf_fill/sf15.pdf .

Military Reserve (MR) and National Guard (NG) Technicians PPP Eligible: MR and NG technicians PPP applicants must be selected and placed at the full performance level if determined well qualified. You must include a completed copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician PPP Self-Certification Checklist to verify your eligibility for Military Reserve and National Guard Technician preference. Click here to obtain a copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician PPP Self-Certification Checklist.6.

Military Reserve (MR) and National Guard (NG) Technicians Receiving Disability Retirement PPP Eligible: MR and NG technicians receiving disability retirement PPP applicants must be selected and placed at the full performance level if determined well qualified. You must include a completed copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician Disability PPP Self-Certification Checklist to verify your eligibility for Military Reserve and National Guard Technician Disability preference. Click here to obtain a copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician Disability PPP Self-Certification Checklist.7.

Retained Grade PPP Eligible: Retained Grade PPP applicants, must be selected and placed at the full performance level if determined well qualified. You must include a completed copy of the Retained Grade PPP Self-Certification Checklist to verify your eligibility for Retained Grade preference. Click here to obtain a copy of the Retained Grade PPP Self-Certification Checklist

Schedule B Excepted Service Public Notice: Under this recruitment procedure, applications will be accepted, and selections are made for vacancies as they occur. A tentative offer of employment will be rescinded if the selectee fails to meet the pre-employment requirements, including failure to report to any of the scheduled appointments.

Employed Annuitants (Reemployed Annuitants):Applicants in receipt of an annuity based on civilian employment in the Federal Service are subject to the DoD Policy on The Employment of Annuitants.

Selective Service: Males born after 12-31-59 must be registered or exempt from Selective Service. For additional information, click here.

Employment Eligibility Verification: Washington Headquarters Services uses E-Verify to confirm the employment eligibility of all newly hired employees. To learn more about E-Verify, including your rights and responsibilities, visit: http://www.dhs.gov/E-Verify

Nepotism: Under the provisions of 5 USC 3110, an individual may not be appointed into a position if the position is under the supervisory chain of command of a relative.

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