Operations Research Analyst – Cross-Portfolio Analysis Division (CPAD)
JOA#: GS 2026-1515-121 (CPAD)
Department: Department of War (DOW)
Agency: Office of the Secretary of War (OSW)
Hiring Organization: Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE)
Open Period: 9/28/2026 – 10/19/2026
Pay Scale & Grade: GS-12/13/14/15
Salary Range: $102,415 - $197,200
Series & Appointment Type: 1515 Operations Research, Permanent - Schedule B Excepted Service
Location: Pentagon, Arlington, VA
Work Schedule: Full Time
Clearance Requirements: Must be able to obtain and maintain a Top Secret/SCI
Citizenship Requirement: Open to all US Citizens
Relocation expenses reimbursed: No
Summary:
CAPE is hiring! We provide objective, analysis-based advice directly to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of War on everything the Department of War does, and our work has a direct effect on the US budget and national security.
Within CAPE, an interdisciplinary and non-advocate organization, the Analysis and Innovation (A&I) Deputate is responsible for a standing strategic assessment of the Defense Program as a whole, focused on its long-term feasibility and its coherence with the defense strategy. A&I also maintains the analytic methods, standards, data infrastructure, and modeling and simulation tools on which CAPE’s analysis rests. It performs CAPE’s role as Executive Secretary of the Department’s Analysis Working Group (AWG), the body chartered to raise analytic standards across the Department.
This announcement is for positions in the Cross-Portfolio Analysis Division (CPAD). CPAD works at the Department-wide level and connects the defense strategy to the program-level analysis beneath it. It frames the whole-program resourcing questions the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of War face, develops and stress-tests alternatives against an adaptive adversary, and presents the results for decision. CPAD also assesses the production transformation a prospective capability shift would require and the effects of economic statecraft on the defense program; an industrial-base economist position for that work will be announced separately.
CPAD analysts are generalists. Each takes a whole-program resourcing question, or an ad hoc tasking from the Secretary or Deputy Secretary, and carries it from framing through analysis to the briefing. Each senior analyst also carries one named specialty by broad mission -- strike and long-range fires; air, missile and homeland defense; enabling missions (C4ISR, space, cyber and electronic warfare); theater sustainment and posture; maritime power projection and undersea warfare; red-blue dynamics; or economic statecraft -- which adds depth without narrowing the seat: the specialist stewards the standing assumptions the division tracks in that area and is the counterpart to the program-evaluation portfolio owners. Senior analysts review one another’s work before it reaches principals, to the methods and rigor standard set by CPAD’s partner division, the Strategic Analysis and Analytic Innovation Division (SAID). They also mentor the division’s junior analysts.
This announcement covers two entry points in CPAD:
Senior Strategic Analyst (GS-14/15): Frames and analyzes major resourcing questions, reviews colleagues’ analyses before they reach principals, and mentors junior analysts. Carries one named specialty by broad mission.
Strategic Analyst (GS-12/13): Performs the same work at a growing level of independence under a senior mentor. The junior tier is the division’s development pipeline.
Duties and Responsibilities:
Depending on the grade level, selectees will be responsible for:
End-to-End Analysis Ownership: Taking a whole-program resourcing question or an ad hoc tasking from the Secretary or Deputy Secretary and carrying it from problem framing to the executive briefing.
Framing and Hypothesis Generation: Translating strategic and budgetary questions into testable analytic frameworks by stating the explicit, falsifiable assumptions on which each resourcing choice depends.
Recurring Products: Contributing to, and at the senior level leading, recurring and event-driven assessments of whether the programmed force remains strategically coherent and feasible, and of how alternative resource choices perform across materially different futures.
Mission Specialty (GS-14/15): Carrying one named specialty by broad mission: stewarding the standing assumptions the division tracks in that area and serving as the counterpart to the program-evaluation portfolio owners, while remaining a whole-program analyst first.
Program Baseline Currency: Incorporating the programmatic decisions of the Program Budget Review into the whole-program baseline that CPAD’s analysis uses, so that assessments reflect the program as decided.
Internal Peer Review: Reviewing CPAD analyses for strategic framing, synthesis, and correct application of SAID’s methods and standards before submission for any required independent assurance review.
Joint-Force Perspective: Working with CPAD’s military strategic analysts and the warfighting community to incorporate joint-force and operational considerations, including the force demands implied by Global Force Management and operation plans, into resourcing analysis.
Mentorship (GS-14/15): Mentoring junior analysts in framing, method, and writing for principals.
Qualifications:
Basic Requirements:
A degree in operations research from an accredited college/university; or at least 24 semester hours in a combination of operations research, mathematics, probability, statistics, mathematical logic, science, or subject-matter courses requiring substantial competence in college-level mathematics or statistics. At least 3 of the 24 semester hours must have been in calculus.
RequiredSkills:
Your qualifications will be evaluated on your knowledge, skills, abilities, and competencies in the following areas:
Strategic Problem Framing and Resourcing Analysis: Experience applying operations research and mathematical modeling to whole-program or strategy-level resourcing questions, and decomposing a strategic question into testable components with explicit trade-offs. Experience with analysis in which the adversary adapts to the option under study (red-blue dynamicsrather than assuming a static environment.
Decision-Making Under Deep Uncertainty: Experience with decisions whose outcomes depend on futures that cannot be assigned probabilities, including scenario-based analysis, robust and adaptive strategies, and exploratory modeling, and with stating the assumptions on which a recommendation rests.
Structured Qualitative Methods: Experience with scenario construction, structured elicitation, comparative case analysis, and net assessment, used alongside quantitative analysis.
Executive Communication: Ability to present complex analysis in concise written products and oral briefings for executive leadership at the highest levels of the organization. A writing sample may be requested.
Desired Skills:
Synthesis Across Levels: Experience integrating program and/or operational data, military capability assessments, and high-level strategy into a single assessment. Experience analyzing and solving problems at the corporate or institutional level rather than a single program or portfolio. Familiarity with the Department’s program, budget, force-structure, and readiness or equivalent large scale enterprise resource planning data sets and the systems that hold them, sufficient to judge what they can and cannot answer.
Mission-Area Depth: Depth in at least one broad mission area -- strike and long-range fires; air, missile and homeland defense; enabling missions (C4ISR, space, cyber and electronic warfare); or the strategy and adaptation of a major competitor -- sufficient to steward the assumptions the Department's program makes in that area.
Defense Planning and Planning Programming Budgeting Execution (PPBE) Fluency: Understanding of U.S. defense planning documents (National Defense Strategy, Defense Planning Guidance), joint capabilities, and threat assessments, and fluency in the planning, programming, budgeting, and execution (PPBE) process, including the Program Budget Review and the way its decisions change the program.
Collaboration: Ability to work acrossthe Department components, includingwith seniorstakeholders and external research organizations to gather data and test findings.
Specialized Experience: To qualify at a grade, you must have at least one year of specialized experience (12 months at 40 hours per week) equivalent to at least the next lower grade level, performing the duties and demonstrating the competencies listed for that grade:
Part-time or Unpaid/volunteer work experience:
Background Checks and Security Clearance
You will be required to obtain and maintain a Top Secret or Top Secret/SCI security clearance. For more information regarding security clearances click here.
How to Apply:
Required Documents:
1. Resume:
a. IN DESCRIBING YOUR EXPERIENCE, BE CLEAR, SPECIFIC AND DETAILED. WE MAY NOT MAKE ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING YOUR EXPERIENCE.
b. Include your name, address, and contact information, and for each position the hours worked per week and the dates of employment or volunteer service (month/year to month/year, or month/year to present). One year of specialized experience equals 2,087 hours, or 52 weeks at 40 hours per week; part-time hours are prorated. Experience that does not state exact hours per week, or lists them as "varies", will not be credited. For additional information see:How do I write a resume for a federal job
c. Do not include any photos and Personally Identifiable Information (i.e., Social Security Number, Birthdate) on your resume.
d. Resume must be limited to 2 pages and a minimum size 10 font. Please save your resume as a PDF file to preserve the 2-page length.
2. Transcripts: To count toward the qualification requirements, education must come from an institution accredited by an accrediting body recognized by the U.S. Department of Education. A copy of a diploma alone is not sufficient.
a. Foreign Education: Education completed at a foreign college or university may be used to meet the requirements if you provide proof that the credentials have been evaluated as at least equivalent to those earned in an accredited U.S. program.
3. Writing Sample:Demonstrate your analytic ability and writing skills in one page, addressing the following: A senior leader is considering whether to shift resources from a near-term capability to a future capability whose value depends on uncertain assumptions. Identify the assumptions and evidence that should drive the decision, explain how an adaptive adversary could change the result, and recommend what should be decided now versus deferred.
4. Veterans Preference:veteran eligibility documentation (DD-214 Member #4 Copy, VA Letter, Standard Form (SF) 15 as applicable). Please note: If you are a veteran who has not yet been discharged, you may provide a statement of intent to discharge from your agency to receive Veterans Preference under the VOW (Veterans Opportunity to Work) to Hire Heroes Act of 2011.
5. SF-50: Your latest SF-50 (if applicable) showing your tenure, grade and step, and type of position occupied. Remove all Personally Identifiable Information (Social Security Number and Birthdate). If you receive an updated SF-50 after initially applying, please provide the updated document to CAPE to be added to your application. If you’ve had a break in service – please provide your original appointment SF50 in addition to your resignation SF50. If you do not have your latest documents, you can submit a request to the National Personnel Records Center to obtain them – see guidance here: https://www.archives.gov/personnel-records-center/civilian-non-archival
6. Military Spouse Preference Eligibility documentation (if applicable). For Priority Placement Program, you must include a copy of the Military Spouse PPP Self-Certification Checklist along with the documents identified on the checklist to verify your eligibility for MSP, such as PCS orders/verification of duty location assignment and a copy of marriage certificate or license. For eligibility under Executive Order 13473, acceptable documentation includes: verification of marriage to the servicemember, verification of member’s 100 percent disability or verification of member’s death while on active duty.
7. Free Response Essay Questions: Optional section to demonstrate your commitment to improving the efficiency of the Federal government, passion about the ideals of our American republic, and commitment to upholding the rule of law and the United States Constitution. You will not be scored against your responses for this section.
Please visit the CAPE Careers website for more information on CAPE, our benefits and more.
How You Will Be Evaluated:
Subject matter experts will evaluate your qualifications before any referral. If you meet the minimum qualifications for this position, your application will be assessed in a multi-hurdle process that ends in a ranking and referral.
Resume Review (First Hurdle): Subject matter experts will review your resume to determine qualifications based on the required competencies identified above.
Qualifying Structured Interviews (Second Hurdle): If the subject matter experts determine that your resume reflects the required competencies, you will have a panel interview (virtual or by phone) to assess your experience against those competencies. The interview may include in-depth questions or an exercise or case study to measure your depth of knowledge.
Ranking and Preference: Qualified candidates receive a score between 70 and 100, before any points for veterans’ preference. Your answers are verified against the information in your application and by reference checks. Preference is applied to applicants who move forward after the qualifying interviews.
Selection Process: Hiring managers receive a certificate listing the qualified candidates eligible for selection. If you are not selected for this position, you may be considered for similar positions for up to six months from the certificate date, and the certificate may be shared with other CAPE hiring managers. If you are selected for an interview, you may be asked to give a presentation, analyze a case study, or take part in several rounds of interviews.
Agency contact information:
Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE)
Email:
osd.pentagon.cape.mbx.esd-support@mail.mil?subject=CAPE%20ORSA%20Application
Additional Information:
Priority consideration programs will continue under their current operating procedures:
Military Spouse Preference (MSP) Eligible: Military Spouse Preference applicants, must be selected and placed at the highest grade level for which they have applied and been determined best qualified up to and including the full performance level. You must include a completed copy of the Military Spouse PPP Self-Certification Checklist dated within 30 days along with the documents identified on the checklist to verify your eligibility for Military Spouse Preference. Click here to obtain a copy of the Military Spouse PPP Self-Certification Checklist.
NOTE: Military spouses are eligible for one permanent noncompetitive appointment using their preference eligibility for the duration of the active-duty sponsor's assignment to a permanent duty station, as long as the military spouse has not declined or accepted a permanent Federal or non-appropriated fund position in the commuting area of the sponsor's current duty location. If you certify that you have not used your preference at your sponsor's current duty location and it is discovered to be untrue, you may be subject to loss of MSP and possible disciplinary action.
Military Spouses, under Executive Order (E.O.) 13473
You are eligible for this hiring category if you are a spouse of a member of the Armed Forces serving on active duty for more than 180 days other than for training; OR are a spouse of a 100 percent disabled service member injured while on active duty; OR are the un-remarried widow or widower of a service member who was killed while performing active duty.
Supporting documentation: You are required to submit acceptable documentation of your eligibility forE.O. 13473 which may include:
• Verification of the marriage to the service member (i.e., a marriage license or other legal documentation verifying marriage);
• Verification of the member's 100 percent disability; and/or
• Verification of the member's death while on active duty.
Additionally, you may need to submit a Standard Form-15 (SF-15), an Application for 10-Point Veterans' Preference, and applicable supporting documents as noted on the form.
To obtain a copy of SF-15, go to https://www.opm.gov/forms/pdf_fill/sf15.pdf
Military Reserve (MR) and National Guard (NG) Technicians PPP Eligible: MR and NG technicians PPP applicants must be selected and placed at the full performance level if determined well qualified. You must include a completed copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician PPP Self-Certification Checklist to verify your eligibility for Military Reserve and National Guard Technician preference. Click here to obtain a copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician PPP Self-Certification Checklist.6.
Military Reserve (MR) and National Guard (NG) Technicians Receiving Disability Retirement PPP Eligible: MR and NG technicians receiving disability retirement PPP applicants must be selected and placed at the full performance level if determined well qualified. You must include a completed copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician Disability PPP Self-Certification Checklist to verify your eligibility for Military Reserve and National Guard Technician Disability preference. Click here to obtain a copy of the Military Reserve and National Guard Technician Disability PPP Self-Certification Checklist.7.
Retained Grade PPP Eligible: Retained Grade PPP applicants, must be selected and placed at the full performance level if determined well qualified. You must include a completed copy of the Retained Grade PPP Self-Certification Checklist to verify your eligibility for Retained Grade preference. Click here to obtain a copy of the Retained Grade PPP Self-Certification Checklist
Schedule B Excepted Service Public Notice: Under this recruitment procedure, applications will be accepted, and selections are made for vacancies as they occur. A tentative offer of employment will be rescinded if the selectee fails to meet the pre-employment requirements, including failure to report to any of the scheduled appointments.
Employed Annuitants (Reemployed Annuitants): Applicants in receipt of an annuity based on civilian employment in the Federal Service are subject to the DoD Policy on The Employment of Annuitants.
Selective Service: Males born after 12-31-59 must be registered or exempt from Selective Service. For additional information, click here.
Employment Eligibility Verification: Washington Headquarters Services uses E-Verify to confirm the employment eligibility of all newly hired employees. To learn more about E-Verify, including your rights and responsibilities, visit: http://www.dhs.gov/E-Verify
Nepotism: Under the provisions of 5 USC 3110, an individual may not be appointed into a position if the position is under the supervisory chain of command of a relative.
Fair and transparent
The Federal hiring process is set up to be fair and transparent. Please read the following guidance.
Equal Employment Opportunity Policy
What is financial disclosure and why does this job require it
New Employee Probationary Period
Reasonable Accommodation Policy
Selective Service Registration
| Location | Washington, DC |
| Salary | $102,415–$197,200 Per Year |
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