Senior Forecasting Analyst

Job Purpose

Madison Gas and Electric is seeking a Senior Forecasting Analyst to support and continuously improve electric and natural gas sales, customer, revenue, and peak-demand forecasting. In this senior-level individual contributor role, you will apply advanced statistical modeling, financial analysis, and business insight to develop defensible forecasts that support budgeting, regulatory analysis, resource planning, and long-range decision-making. This is an opportunity to translate complex data into clear, actionable recommendations for senior leaders and cross-functional partners while helping shape critical planning decisions for a reliable, forward-looking energy company.

Core Responsibilities

Note: This list is not all-inclusive

• Develop, maintain, and enhance short- and long-term forecasts of electric and natural gas sales, customer counts, and operating revenue by customer class, rate category, or other relevant business segments.
• Apply statistical and analytical techniques such as regression, time-series analysis, weather normalization, trend analysis, segmentation, sensitivity analysis, and forecast error measurement to evaluate historical results and projected outcomes.
• Analyze customer billing, usage, weather, economic, rate, and operational data to identify underlying trends, structural changes, risks, and key drivers of revenue and sales.
• Integrate forecast outputs with budgets, long-range financial plans, regulatory analyses, resource planning assumptions, and other enterprise planning processes.
• Perform actual-to-forecast variance analysis and clearly explain the effects of weather, customer growth, usage patterns, rates, economic conditions, and other business factors.
• Design and maintain repeatable forecasting processes, analytical datasets, dashboards, and reporting tools that improve accuracy, efficiency, transparency, and control.
• Develop scenarios and sensitivities to evaluate uncertainty and the financial implications of alternative weather, economic, customer, rate, and market assumptions.
• Validate models and data through back-testing, reasonableness checks, reconciliation, peer review, and ongoing monitoring of forecast performance.
• Partner with business and technical teams to define data requirements, resolve data-quality issues, and improve access to reliable, well-governed information.
• Communicate assumptions, methodologies, results, limitations, and recommendations in a clear manner for technical and non-technical audiences, including senior management.
• Maintain comprehensive documentation of data sources, model logic, assumptions, controls, changes, and forecast decisions to support continuity, review, and auditability.
• Monitor relevant utility, customer, technology, and economic developments and assess their potential implications for electric and natural gas sales and revenue forecasts.
• Provide analytical leadership, support continuous improvement, and serve as a subject matter resource for revenue and sales forecasting.

Behavioral Competencies

• Business Acumen - Connects analytical results to utility operations, financial performance, customer behavior, regulatory considerations, and other business decisions.
• Analytical Judgment - Selects appropriate methods, tests assumptions, recognizes limitations, and balances model output with informed business judgment.
• Strategic Thinking - Anticipates emerging trends and develops forward-looking insights that support long-term planning.
• Communication - Explains complex analyses, uncertainty, and recommendations clearly and concisely for the intended audience.
• Collaboration - Builds effective relationships across functions and incorporates diverse operational and technical perspectives.
• Ownership and Accountability - Delivers accurate, timely work; maintains strong controls and documentation; and follows issues through resolution.
• Continuous Improvement - Identifies practical opportunities to improve forecast quality, process efficiency, data reliability, and analytical capability.
• Adaptability and Learning Agility - Learns new data, tools, methods, and business concepts and applies them effectively in changing conditions.

Skills

• Revenue and Sales Forecasting - Develops defensible electric and natural gas sales, customer, and revenue forecasts. (Advanced)
• Data Analysis - Organizes, reconciles, and analyzes large and complex datasets to identify meaningful business insights. (Advanced)
• Statistical Analysis - Applies appropriate statistical methods, evaluates model performance, and interprets results and limitations. (Advanced)
• Utility and Financial Analysis - Connects customer usage and billing results to rates, revenue, budgets, and financial outcomes. (Advanced)
• Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis - Evaluates alternative assumptions and communicates the range and drivers of potential outcomes. (Advanced)
• Data Visualization and Communication - Creates clear dashboards, reports, and presentations that support decision-making. (Advanced)
• Data Management and Controls - Maintains reliable data, repeatable processes, documentation, version control, and quality assurance procedures. (Advanced)
• Analytical Tools - Uses spreadsheets, databases, visualization tools, and statistical or programming tools to automate and scale analysis. (Advanced)

Education

• Bachelor's degree in Finance, Economics, Statistics, Data Analytics, Business Analytics, Computer Science, or a related field required; master's degree or relevant certification preferred.

Experience

• 5+ years of related forecasting, statistical analysis, financial analysis, or business analytics experience.
• Experience developing, validating, and communicating forecasting models using large, multi-source datasets.
• Experience with advanced spreadsheets and at least one statistical, programming, database, or business intelligence tool.
• Utility or regulated industry experience preferred.

Work Location

• This hybrid role is based at our Madison, WI headquarters and will require a mix of office and field work. While three days onsite is the minimum, team collaboration and business needs may require additional in-office presence.

Pre-employment will require satisfactory completion of a background check and drug screen.

We are an AA/EOE employer and consider all qualified candidates without regard to protected status.